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February
24
The Gist
A daily dose of market updates and smart investment strategies to guide your portfolio decisions
Today's Report
Your Morning Fix
- The Department of Agriculture (DA) confirmed on Thursday that it will implement a maximum suggested retail price (MSRP) scheme for pork in Metro Manila wet markets next week.
- Philippine stocks surged to a one-month high on Thursday, with the PSEi rising 1.6% to 6,219.96 and the all shares index gaining 0.94%, driven by optimism after US President Donald Trump postponed planned automobile tariffs.
- The Philippines’ unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in January, its highest in six months, reflecting a post-holiday hiring decline despite being slightly lower than the rate a year ago.
- President Donald Trump has temporarily suspended the 25% tariffs on most goods from Canada and Mexico, offering relief to financial markets, with the exemptions set to expire on April 2.
- President Donald Trump announced he would soon decide on revoking temporary legal status for 240,000 Ukrainians who fled the Russia conflict, a reversal of the policies under President Joe Biden and a move that could potentially lead to deportations.
Our Portfolio Recommendation
For the peso portfolio, we recommend a neutral 50-50 split between fixed income and equities. While the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and US Fed rate cuts support risk assets, potential headwinds from tariffs and market volatility may call for a balanced approach to capture fixed income gains while maintaining equity exposure. In the dollar portfolio, we maintain an overweight stance on equities at 55% versus 45% in fixed income, driven by US market strength and robust corporate earnings. Though Fed rate cuts are anticipated, we remain cautious of tariff impacts and stagflation risks, balancing equity upside potential with fixed income stability.
| 2025 Metrobank Forecast | 2026 Metrobank Forecast | 2027-2029 Metrobank Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% |
| Inflation | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| BSP Target Reverse Repurchase Rate | 5.00% | 4.25% | 5.00% |
| Federal Funds Rate | 3.75% | 3.00% | 4.00% |
| USD/PHP | 57.9 | 56.5 | 55.0 |
CHART OF THE DAY
Chart of the Day
PH unemployment rate drops to 4.3%
The Philippines’ unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% in January 2025 from 4.5% a year earlier, though it was higher than October 2024’s 3.9%. The number of unemployed individuals remained steady at 2.16 million compared to January 2024 but increased from 1.97 million in October 2024. Sources: PSA, Bloomberg
Featured Reports
More Reads
USD/PHP continues to dip to new lows
- The USD/PHP exchange rate opened 9.5 centavos lower at 57.25 on Thursday, tracking the broad global dollar weakness.
- Despite this, the local pair initially rallied to above 57.30 due to fixing and corporate demand.
- The move to the downside only netted lows of 57.12 as heavy demand from importers scaled in heavily on this dip.
- The USD/PHP exchange rate ultimately closed at 57.32, or 2.5 centavos lower day-on-day.
- The current support levels of USD/PHP are at 57.20/30 while the resistance levels are at 57.40/50.
READ MORE
Local GS see slow activity amid patient players
- The local government securities (GS) market saw little movement despite the overnight sell-off in US Treasuries, as participants waited for fresh catalysts.
- Retail Treasury Bond 5-18 was the most traded bond, trading between 5.96% and 5.975%, while Fixed Rate Treasury Note 7-70 closed at 6.05%.
- Retail demand for short-dated bonds remained strong, with clients reinvesting their maturity proceeds into the most recently issued Treasury bills.
- Offshore players showed increased selling interest despite the USD/PHP exchange rate closing at a new year-to-date low.
- The curve is expected to continue steepening due to supply concerns in the 7- to 25-Year space.
READ MORE
PSEi extends its positive streak to 6,200-level
- The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 98.19 points higher at 6,219.96 on Thursday, as investors turned into bargain-hunters amid easing global trade tensions.
- Sectoral indices closed positive, led by Services (+2.66%) and Mining & Oil (+3.58%).
- The International Container Terminal Services Inc. (+5.64%), GT Capital Holdings Inc. (+5.07%), and SM Prime Holdings Inc. (+2.97%) led the charge.
- Meanwhile, Converge Information & Communications Technology Solutions Inc. (-1.73%), Aboitiz Equity Ventures Inc. (-1.05%), and Alliance Global Group Inc. (-0.61%) were among the few laggards.
- The market’s resilience was evident as the local stock index touched an intraday high of 6,275.34 before some profit-taking emerged late in the session.
READ MORE
USD/PHP continues to dip to new lows
- The USD/PHP exchange rate opened 9.5 centavos lower at 57.25 on Thursday, tracking the broad global dollar weakness.
- Despite this, the local pair initially rallied to above 57.30 due to fixing and corporate demand.
- The move to the downside only netted lows of 57.12 as heavy demand from importers scaled in heavily on this dip.
- The USD/PHP exchange rate ultimately closed at 57.32, or 2.5 centavos lower day-on-day.
- The current support levels of USD/PHP are at 57.20/30 while the resistance levels are at 57.40/50.
READ MORE
Local GS see slow activity amid patient players
- The local government securities (GS) market saw little movement despite the overnight sell-off in US Treasuries, as participants waited for fresh catalysts.
- Retail Treasury Bond 5-18 was the most traded bond, trading between 5.96% and 5.975%, while Fixed Rate Treasury Note 7-70 closed at 6.05%.
- Retail demand for short-dated bonds remained strong, with clients reinvesting their maturity proceeds into the most recently issued Treasury bills.
- Offshore players showed increased selling interest despite the USD/PHP exchange rate closing at a new year-to-date low.
- The curve is expected to continue steepening due to supply concerns in the 7- to 25-Year space.
READ MORE
PSEi extends its positive streak to 6,200-level
- The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 98.19 points higher at 6,219.96 on Thursday, as investors turned into bargain-hunters amid easing global trade tensions.
- Sectoral indices closed positive, led by Services (+2.66%) and Mining & Oil (+3.58%).
- The International Container Terminal Services Inc. (+5.64%), GT Capital Holdings Inc. (+5.07%), and SM Prime Holdings Inc. (+2.97%) led the charge.
- Meanwhile, Converge Information & Communications Technology Solutions Inc. (-1.73%), Aboitiz Equity Ventures Inc. (-1.05%), and Alliance Global Group Inc. (-0.61%) were among the few laggards.
- The market’s resilience was evident as the local stock index touched an intraday high of 6,275.34 before some profit-taking emerged late in the session.
READ MORE