Fundamental View
AS OF 15 Aug 2024- Hyundai and Kia posted solid 2Q24 results that were ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimates and left their FY24 financial guidance unchanged. Automotive operating profit margins remained double-digits at both companies, although Hyundai’s margins were adversely impacted in the quarter by higher warranty expenses. Eco-friendly vehicle sales accounted for a healthy share of total unit wholesales in 2Q24 for both Hyundai (18%) and Kia (21%), although sales of hybrids continued to grow for both companies during the quarter while Hyundai’s EV sales declined YoY. Management teams at both Hyundai and Kia have stated hybrid vehicles generate double-digit profit margins that are “not that different” from ICE vehicle margins, while its EVs are profitable but generate low-single-digit margins.
Business Description
AS OF 15 Aug 2024Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 15 Aug 2024- FY24 guidance includes wholesale volume growth of less than 1% to 4.24 mn units. Revenue is projected to increase 4%-5% based primarily on growth in North American sales volumes and higher average selling prices (ASPs). Operating profit margins are expected to moderate based on limited industry demand growth, intensifying competition, higher sales incentives, and increased labor costs.
- For 2H24, management expects challenging market conditions will make it difficult to achieve sales growth in most markets except the U.S., which it expects to be characterized by continued strong performance and favorable exchange rates. Additional color will be provided during its 2024 CEO Investor Day at the end of August at which they will announce their short-term and long-term business strategies and financial goals.
Key Metric
AS OF 15 Aug 2024KRW bn | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | LTM 2Q24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 80,577 | 94,143 | 113,718 | 130,150 | 132,693 |
EBIT | 890 | 5,459 | 8,950 | 15,440 | 15,628 |
EBIT Margin | 1.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 13.8% |
EBITDA | 5,076 | 10,015 | 13,998 | 20,387 | 15,615 |
EBITDA Margin | 6.3% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 15.7% | 17.4% |
Total Liquidity | 17,082 | 19,745 | 26,639 | 26,507 | 23,590 |
Net Debt | (4,453) | (5,202) | (11,035) | (10,916) | (12,546) |
Total Debt | 10,920 | 12,569 | 12,940 | 12,940 | 8,685 |
Gross Leverage | 2.2x | 1.3x | 0.9x | 0.6x | 0.6x |
Net Leverage | -0.9x | -0.5x | -0.8x | -0.5x | -0.8x |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 15 Nov 2024We maintain Outperform recommendations on notes of Hyundai Capital America (HYNMTR), Hyundai Capital Services (HYUCAP), and Kia Corp. (KIA) notes based on relative value, expectations of stable to growing market share in developed markets, sustained strong automotive profitability and margins, its innovative hybrid vehicle and EV product offerings that we believe should fuel further share gains, and solid free cash flow generation.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 15, 2024
Recommendation Changed: December 20, 2023