Given our expectation of falling peso interest rates, we recommend maintaining an overweight position on fixed income assets to improve the portfolio’s risk and return exposure. Opportunistic investors may consider reinstating positions in medium- to long-term peso bonds at more favorable levels through the upcoming primary issuances. We then see an opportunity to shift to a neutral stance on equities towards the second half of the year, as we expect investors to lock-in gains from their overweight-fixed income positions ahead of the anticipated rate cuts by the BSP.
2024 Metrobank Forecast | 2025 Metrobank Forecast | |
---|---|---|
GDP | 6.0% | 6.0-7.0% |
Inflation | 4.3% | 4.3% |
Target BSP Overnight Rate | 5.50% | 4.75% |
USD/PHP Trend | 54.0 | 52.7 |
The gold spot price closed at a record-setting high of USD 2,513.99 per troy ounce on Tuesday on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will start lowering policy rates in September. The 21.9% year-to-date surge in the price of gold has placed the precious metal among the best performing major commodities in 2024. Sources: Bloomberg
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